agnostic<-function(onoff,total,prior,uniform)	{

	if (missing(total) || total == '')
		total = rep(1,length(onoff))
	if (sum(total) == 0)
		return(rep(NA,length(onoff)))
	if (missing(prior) || prior == '')
		prior = 0.5
	if (missing(uniform) || uniform != T)
		uniform = F

	totalBins = length(onoff)
	bins = length(onoff)
	for (i in 1:bins)
		if (total[i] > 0)
			lastControl = i
	bins = lastControl
	onoff = onoff[1:bins]
	total = total[1:bins]
	if (onoff[bins] > 0)
		return(rep(0,totalBins))

	withData = 0
	for (i in 1:bins)
		if (onoff[i] > 0)
			withData = withData + 1
	if (withData <= 1)
		return(rep(NA,totalBins))

	first = 0
	last = 0
	for (i in 1:bins)
		if (onoff[i] > 0)	{
			if (first == 0)
				first = i
			last = i
		}

	n = sum(onoff)

	# simple likelihood of the data assuming no extinction
	# subtract one from the denominator because the last occurrence must be
	#  held in place
	c = choose(sum(total[1:last]) - 1 , n - 1)
	aliveLike = c / choose(sum(total) , n)

	# key computation: find likelihoods assuming variable-length
	#  durations before extinction
	# the likelihood contribution of the hypothesized extinctions
	#  before the last appearance is of course zero
	# the prior extinction probability is a function of the exponential
	#  decay coefficient mu
	extinctLike = rep(0,totalBins)
	mu = log(1 - prior) / bins
	for (i in (last+1):bins)	{
		if (uniform == T)
			extinctLike[i] = prior * c / choose(sum(total[1:(i-1)]) , n) / bins
		else
			extinctLike[i] = c / choose(sum(total[1:(i-1)]) , n) * (exp((i - 1) * mu) - exp(i * mu))
	}

	# compute interval-by-interval posteriors
	post = extinctLike / (sum(extinctLike) + (1 - prior) * aliveLike)

	# compute running total
	post = cumsum(post)
	if (bins < totalBins)
		post[(bins+1):totalBins] = post[length(post)]
	return(post)

}